#92 - Chinese Invasion of Taiwan - What would it look like? Col (Ret) Mark Cancian

Colonel Mark Cancian is a retired Marine with over 30 years of active and reserve service. He is a Senior Advisor for the Center for Strategic & International Studies. In this episode he discusses the results of a war game that simulated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The Ukraine conflict and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Col Mark Cancian https://www.csis.org/people/mark-f-cancian War Game - https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan Coping with Surprise - Great Power Conflicts https://www.csis.org/analysis/coping-surprise-great-power-conflicts Tradeoffs Between Israel - Taiwan - Ukraine :https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-united-states-equip-israel-while-simultaneously-equipping-ukraine-and-taiwan Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Background 03:45 Reasons for Conducting the War Games 06:20 Structure and Execution of the War Game 08:17 Choice of Year for the Invasion Scenario 09:46 Likely Scenario of the Chinese Invasion 13:08 Assumptions about Military Capabilities 15:53 Importance of Dispersing Forces and Hardening Shelters 19:53 Outcome of the War Game 21:23 Recommendations and Insights 23:01 No Ukraine Option for Taiwan 26:48 Civilian Impact and Scenarios 29:10 Challenges of Crossing the Taiwan Strait 29:39 Chinese Amphibious Operations and Logistics Challenges 30:36 Parallels Between Ukraine and China 31:35 The Reality of Unexpected Military Actions 32:35 Lessons from the War in Ukraine 33:34 Adaptation in Warfare 35:00 Impact of Air Defenses and Naval Warfare in Ukraine 36:28 Role of Drones in the Conflict 39:24 Challenges of Introducing New Technologies 40:20 Limitations of F-16s in Ukraine 45:37 Supporting Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan 52:48 Supporting Allies in Times of Conflict 56:16 Managing Global Commitments 59:39 Threats of a Power Vacuum and Chinese Influence Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/the-afterburn-podcast/exclusive-content Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands