Tania Reif – You Can Be Right and Lose Money

BIO: Tania Reif is the Founder and CIO of Senda Digital Assets. Prior to her cryptocurrency focus, she built her investment pedigree at top macro hedge funds, including Soros Fund Management, Laurion Capital, Citadel, and Alphadyne Asset Management.STORY: Around the end of 2017, Talia believed the dollar would stay strong and rally. Unfortunately, it tanked in January 2018. It only started rallying three or four months later, but by that time, Talia had taken her chips off the table and didn’t profit from her view that played out a few months later.LEARNING: Reassess your investment model and make discretionary decisions to avoid getting into trouble. You can’t always be on top of everything in the financial world. Don’t fight the flow. “You actually can be right and lose money. This mostly happens when you’re, funnily enough, too early to a trade.”Tania Reif Guest profileTania Reif is the Founder and CIO of Senda Digital Assets. Prior to her cryptocurrency focus, she built her investment pedigree at top macro hedge funds, including Soros Fund Management, Laurion Capital, Citadel, and Alphadyne Asset Management.She was profiled in the 50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds 2017 survey by The Hedge Fund Journal. Her career spans public policy beginnings at the International Monetary Fund and experience in the banking industry at Citgroup’s Economic and Market Analysis team.She holds a Ph.D. in Economics with Distinction from Columbia University, where she earned the Jagdish Bhagwati International Economics Award for her work in currency dynamics.Worst investment everTania had a perfect model for trade currencies that had worked for many years. Then, in 2016, 17 and 18, it started to wobble. Around that time, she had a bunch of episodes where she’d put a trade on exchange rates, and it just wouldn’t go her way, or it would take longer.Around the end of 2017, Talia believed the dollar would stay strong and rally. Unfortunately, it tanked in January 2018. It only started rallying three or four months later. By then, Talia had taken her chips off the table and didn’t profit from her model that ended up playing out a few months later.Lessons learnedStay humble, and when things are not working, take a step back, reassess your investment model, and make discretionary decisions to avoid getting into trouble.Andrew’s takeawaysYou can’t always be on top of everything in the financial world.Don’t fight the flow.Actionable adviceHave a smaller size until you understand what’s happening. Be careful, and avoid the temptation to double down because you’re convinced you’re right.Tania’s recommendationsTania recommends following Michael Howell for fantastic research and data on liquidity. He also has a substack for young and non-institutional investors that you can subscribe to.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsTania launched a crypto fund in 2022, and her number one goal for the next 12 months is to get this young fund up and running into a more mature and established institution.Parting words “Please reach out if you’re interested in learning more about...