Horse race journalism as National takes aim at squeezed middle

As National announced its long-awaited tax plan, some journalists took a hard look at its numbers, while others focused more on political strategy and impact.As National announced its long-awaited tax plan, some journalists took a hard look at its numbers, while others focused more on political strategy and perception.National leader Christopher Luxon started the day of his party's long-awaited tax policy announcement assuring Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking his numbers were "rock solid".After several elections batting off accusations of fiscal holes and other budgetary misadventures, National had commissioned the consultancy Castalia Advisors to check its plan and it found them to be, in the words of the party's deputy leader Nicola Willis, "possible and plausible".Luxon wasn't giving Hosking all the details of his possible and plausible schemes, but he was saying who they would benefit, setting a record for use of the phrase "squeezed middle" in a five-minute timeframe. The party's effort to relieve the squeeze was unveiled a few hours later and that prompted a tide of headlines trumpeting the tax plan offering the average household $250 a fortnight. That was something of a coup for National's PR team. Not only did they get news organisations to highlight the biggest figure from their press release; they got them to use their preferred unit of measurement for people (households rather than individuals) and time (fortnightly rather than weekly).As Thomas Coughlan noted in the New Zealand Herald, that made the figures look larger - and presumably made the party's political sales job a little easier.$250 a fortnight - or $125 a week as it's sometimes known - would still be a pretty good tension remover for the tightly compressed middle.But as it turns out, National may be unclenching with one hand and squeezing with the other. Its $250-a-fortnight saving for an average family with kids includes $150 from its Family Boost tax credit.But that credit would also replace the 20 hours of free childcare for two-year-olds that Labour offered in this year's Budget. That could be worth around $133 a week for families - or $266 a fortnight.That - according to a robust, consultant cross-checked Mediawatch statistical analysis - is more than $150. Or even $250 (though it is obviously more targeted and comes with less flexibility than a cash handout).Other fishhooks were highlighted in the media as the day wore on.TVNZ Breakfast producer Tom Day flicked through National's tax plan to find a single line noting it would scrap Labour's Community Connect scheme.https://twitter.com/tomdaynz/status/1696687537929281716…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details