Sahm Rule on Precipice: US Recession Chances at 40% Next Year

Moodys economists discuss the US economys proximity to the Sahm Rule recession indicator, with unemployment at 4.6% in November. The Sahm Rule, which signals a recession when unemployment rises by half a percentage point, was nearly triggered. Experts weigh the Federal Reserves soft landing strategy and immigration policies impact on job growth. A forty percent chance of recession in 2023 is estimated, with AIs potential job market effects also considered.The Daily News Now! — Every city. Every story. AI-powered. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.